May 12, 2025, at 7:00 PM, the National Basketball Association (NBA) began its 40th annual draft lottery. To participate in this lottery, a franchise needs to miss the playoffs with a record below .500, meaning they need to lose over half of the total games in the season. The losing teams’ winning odds depend on the number of games the team lost within the season. This year, the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards each held a 14% chance of winning the lottery.
To ensure randomization, each team sends an ambassador who usually works as either a team executive or a former player. The ambassador receives a set amount of four different number sequences between one and 14. With a total of 1,001 unique sequences, the top three teams with the likeliest odds of securing the first pick receive 140 different sequences, with the rest of the league receiving fewer sequences. Following the sequence assignment, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum uses a standard lottery ball machine to announce the four numbers of who receives the first overall pick.
Even before the beginning of the 2024-25 season, the teams knew that this year’s draft could determine the direction of a franchise. Consensus first overall pick, small forward Cooper Flagg (2), officially declared for the draft following his stellar freshman year at Duke. Despite his elimination in the final four of March Madness, Flagg’s overall talent and potential in the league could lead to him developing into a franchise cornerstone, barring any unfortunate outcomes. For losing teams, the value of Flagg prompted franchises to purposely tank their performance in the season to raise their odds of securing the first overall.
“Commissioner Adam Silver has kept bad teams like Washington bad once again. He rewards big market teams such as San Antonio and Philadelphia for mediocrity despite each having solid rosters. Knowing stars won’t willingly go to small markets like Charlotte or Utah, and instead of letting them organically build, you hold them back with terrible draft picks. I’m begging for Silver to change the lottery system somehow,” Kell High School junior PJ Samu said.
All league analytics and statisticians predicted the first overall pick; therefore, the draft rights to Flagg would likely land in the hands of one of the bottom three teams in the league, or even a team currently tanking due to injuries, such as the San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers. Shock and awe rippled throughout the league as Tatum announced the winning numbers of 10, 11, 14 and seven. Immediately, onlookers and players’ jaws dropped with the realization that the Dallas Mavericks held the winning combinations in hand, securing the top pick in the 2025 NBA draft.
With a 1.8% chance, Dallas surprised the league with their success following their trade of a former generational player, Dallas’ own point guard Luka Doncić (77), February 2, 2025, for Los Angeles center Anthony Davis (3). Fans reeled from the loss of Doncić for months following the trade, demanding the removal of general manager Nico Harrison for his decision to ship off Doncić despite his value to the city and his generational run to the NBA finals in 2024. Harrison defended the trade by criticizing Doncić’s defense, claiming his effort on the court could not help the team in any way.
“I thought it was really stupid when the trade happened. The Mavericks traded a player who was supposed to be their next Dirk Nowitzki (41) for an aging star who then proceeded to get injured in his first game. Luka took that team to the finals and they backstabbed him not even a year later, ” junior Camden Gross said.
With the near-guaranteed chance Dallas drafts Cooper Flagg, the team will surround him with veterans such as point guard Kyrie Irving (11), shooting guard Klay Thompson (31) and Davis. In the coming years, the team will include young players for Flagg to develop with, including shooting guard Max Christie (00), center Dereck Lively II (2) and shooting guard Jaden Hardy (1). With proper roster construction, Flagg’s development can help boost the Mavericks back to championship contention and possibly into a new dynasty.
Despite the criticism and slander from fans, Harrison’s decision to trade Doncić quickly changed from a nearly franchise-destroying move to a decision multiple steps ahead of any team in the league. Although the Mavericks’ championship window approaches its end with Davis, Irving and Thompson nearing their retirement and facing numerous health issues, the draft lottery secured a franchise player for the future and added one or two extra seasons to Dallas’ championship window. For Washington, North Carolina and Utah, the draft lottery forces them to tank for another year in hopes of finding a generational player in the 2026 draft.
